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The Danger of Market Timing in Your Exit Strategy

By Generational Equity

Danger of Market Timing

If we could only predict the future! What geniuses we would be.

Sadly, far too many entrepreneurs fall into this trap as they consider the timing of their exit strategy. It seems that the unbridled optimism that business owners must have (who in their right mind would risk everything to create a business not knowing the future) often works to their detriment when it comes to exit planning.

Too often we hear: I will sell when the time is right.

When we ask “When will the time be right?”, we are told, I just will know.

The reality is far too many are waiting for the perfect alignment of stars, moons, and tides before starting their exit process. Since it takes 9-18 months to actually close an optimal transaction with an ideal buyer, waiting until the timing is perfect is sadly often not the best plan.

One thing to consider is this: The cost of capital to acquire companies is driven by interest rates. Simply put, the cheaper it is to finance an acquisition, the more buyers will pay (all things being equal). Keep in mind that professional buyers, the kind that you want to deal with, have many options they can pursue with their money. The least risky option is simply parking it in U.S. Treasuries since they are risk-free, require no work and are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

So let’s assume that you are negotiating with a buyer who has his/her funds earning 2% (in today’s market, for example) and is pleased with that return. How much would this buyer need in ROI (return on investment) to acquire your company?

Let’s assume that they would need 5x (*see note below) the risk-free rate because of the work and risk associated with your investment, so 10%. If your company is generating $300K in pre-tax profit, that means they could pay you $3 million for your business and earn their ROI of 10% going forward.

What a deal! You get out from under the risk and hard work of running your business and exit the company with $3 million. But sadly, at the 11th hour you decide, “Well, I am going to time this to get a better deal. I’ll spend time growing my business and exit in two years or so after I have radically expanded this company.” So you walk away from this offer.

Back To The Future

Two years later, you have grown your earnings to $450K, which is fantastic! You are now ready to put your exit strategy into action.

However, U.S. Treasuries are now generating 3% for your original buyer. Again, they are earning this 3% risk-free, work-free, and with no hassle for them. So, assuming they would still need 5x the risk-free rate (and assuming that they are still interested in acquiring your company), their ROI now is 15%, not 10%.

How much would they pay you two years later for your $450K in earnings? Sadly, because the cost of capital has increased over the two-year window, they will still only pay you $3 million, because an ROI of 15% (again 5x the risk-free rate) on earnings of $450K still generates a $3 million offer.

This means you have taken on two years of serious risk and hard work (and two years of your life that you will never recover) to get the same deal you would have had two years earlier.

Does that make sense?

No way!

But this is just one example of how waiting, growing, and hoping can hurt your bank account because ultimately with any buyer, interest rates play a key role.

Why are company valuations so high in today’s market? Because despite recent Fed increases, interest rates remain at historic lows. But where are rates heading? The Fed has already indicated that they plan further increases this year and several next year. What will that do to valuations overall?

Yes, you guessed it: Drive them lower. Where will interest rates be in three years? How about five? What will that mean to your company’s market value? Even if you grow your company dramatically over this time frame, you could end up with substantially less from your exit strategy as our example above shows.

And interest rates are simply one part of the valuation equation that buyers use to justify their offers. What happens if the supply of companies for sale dramatically increases, which is predicted to occur over the next dozen years or so as the 60% of all privately held baby boomer business owners retire. The laws of supply and demand will come into play and will dramatically impact business valuations.

Timing Your Exit Strategy

We are now back to the original statement: I will sell when the time is right. When we ask, when will the time be right? We are told, I just will know.

I would suggest that the time is now, especially as it relates to the key component of most transactions – interest rates.

As we have learned, don’t let other issues that may not mean as much color your thinking and block your mind from the reality that this is the strongest seller’s market we have seen in decades. The low cost of capital is driving buyers to be very aggressive in terms of company valuations overall.

Since we realize that the process of exiting a company can be quite complex and emotional, we have created exit planning conferences designed to help you understand how to eventually leave your business for maximum value. Attending one will help you gain significant knowledge about successfully exiting and place you in a better position to achieve your financial goals.

To learn more about our educational conferences and the services Generational Equity provides, use the following links:

And even if you don’t attend one of our conferences, do some research on the cost of capital and its impact on company valuations. That way you can understand how it influences valuations overall, and your company’s in particular.

By Carl Doerksen, Director of Corporate Development at Generational Equity.

© 2021 Generational Equity, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

*Note: I am using 5x the risk-free rate simply to make the math easy to understand. In reality, most buyers will require a much higher ROI for investing in a privately held company given the significant risk and unknowns involved in making the acquisition.

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T.D., thank you so much! You are a great leader! I love how you are using your gifts and talents to better others. You are clearly a GREAT COACH! This 3 day session undoubtedly changed the future of our business, and very well may have been the sole catalyst to save my company, my health and my marriage! A genuine “thank you” from the bottom of my heart.
Bryan D. Horn, Owner, Over Under Clothing
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Robert Evans, President and CEO of Mealtracker Dietary Software
Greetings Mike. Thank you for the captivating and compelling presentation you made at the Phoenix presentation last week. Over many years in business yours was the most informative and well-presented presentation, on any subject, that I have ever attended! Your energy and enthusiasm combined with your concise and captivating support of your positions with easily understood examples and data was compelling.
Pete L.
We had the pleasure of working with Mr. Ahmad Behjati Managing Director, M&A, for Generational Equity during our acquisition of Papa's Dodge in late 2021. Generational Equity and Mr. Behjati represented and marketed Papa’s Dodge. As our primary contact, Mr. Behjati was professional in every facet of this acquisition process, conveying valuable advice most times and assisting us in every step of the process.
Rick Greene of Dobbs Equity Partners LLC
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Larry Moore, Owner, A Company Portable Restrooms
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Rick Nowak, President/CEO, Kurz Electric Solutions, Inc.
We thank you Eric and Generational Equity making our dream come true.
Larry Moore, Owner, A Company Portable Restrooms
I decided to attend the conference and hopefully receive some guidance on how to structure an exit plan of my business. Upon arriving at the conference, I was so impressed with the presentation given by Generational Equity that I set a future appointment that week to discuss the possibility of selling my business with their Senior Managing Director David Robinson.
JoAnn Ellis, Owner of Fondren 5 Star Kennels
We were represented by Michael Goss with Generational. The due diligence was grueling and exhausting, but Michael propped us up and kept us motivated throughout the process. Debi and I continued to ask each other how we could possibly make it through this process without the assistance of Michael. Michael's professionalism and knowledge is absolutely amazing, and we are so blessed to have had him by our side as we made our future dreams come true.
Bob and Debi Lee, Owners of BL Technology, Inc and BL Tl Services, LLC
I would like to thank you and your firm, Generational Equity, for being our valued advisors in our journey.
Bil MacLeslie, CEO, ipHouse
I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you for all that you have done for us. Not only did you take care of all the aspects of the sale but took extra care to make sure we knew what it looked like every step of the way. I will definitely recommend your company to anyone that is in a position to or looking to exit their business.
Shane and Johanna Kline, Owners of Vision Upfitters
I am pleased that I was able to work with Andrew Byrd throughout this experience. From the first meeting we had in Minneapolis I felt that I was in good hands. His knowledge and expertise is second to none. He guided the process consistently throughout. I feel lucky that I was pared with Andrew and could not be happier that I chose Generational Equity to handle this major life event. Thank you Andrew and GenEq for everything!
Eric Erlandson, Owner, Action Fastenings, Inc.
Thanks to you, the entire GE team and especially Michael Goss for driving a great valuation, coaching me and driving the process across the finish line. Please let me know if there is anything I can do to support GE going forward. P.S. Given my experience with GE I felt comfortable enough to sign up with Generation Wealth Advisors!
Tom Currier, Former President & CEO, Rackmount Solutions
The help you provided us during each step of this process made us feel very comfortable and confident we were selecting the right approach to transition our Company.
Andy Graham, Vice President, Modern Heating & Plumbing
Through the sale process, Generational brought in several interested buyers and we closed in about 6 months. I am so glad I accepted that invitation to the conference and could not be happier with the whole process. The team at Generational coupled with their knowledge and guidance was so valuable that in the end, I know I could never have done this on my own!
JoAnn Ellis, Owner of Fondren 5 Star Kennels
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Rick Nowak, President/CEO, Kurz Electric Solutions, Inc.
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Jay Dinnison, Owner of Sharpe Mixers
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Terry D. Wickman, President, Keytroller
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Bil MacLeslie, CEO, ipHouse
The professionals at Generational Equity then helped develop a roadmap for enhancing the value of the firm and an evaluation report. This was completed by June 14, 2021. We then developed the Confidential Information Memorandum and put Taylor Studios, Inc. on the market by July.
Generational Equity’s professional staff helped me every step of the way. Their network and professionals are the only reason I sold my company this quickly. For me this is a once in a lifetime sale and I was unfamiliar with the process. I was able to lean on them with questions and concerns.
Betty L. Brennan, President, Taylor Studios
I need to say an immense thank you to Don Ho for his stellar work ethic, attention to detail, and tireless effort. Also thank you to the whole crew at GE! Without you, Don could not do such a phenomenal job. We were shooting for closing and funding before the end of 2020, due to the uncertainty of the political landscape and taxes. I am happy to report we closed last week and will be funding tomorrow.
Dr. Caty J. Catron PhD, RN, VA-BC – Owner, Vic The Picc, LLC
Generational Equity’s assistance was invaluable in compiling and marketing our business.
Bil MacLeslie, CEO, ipHouse
We are very happy with the end result, and are very happy to be able to move forward with all of our future growth plans.
Rick Nowak, President/CEO, Kurz Electric Solutions, Inc.
After attending a conference with GE, I decided that the value they bring would be worth the expense and as soon as I started working with them, I realized that was the right decision. When we started to get LOIs, Fred Zweifel took the lead on the communication and supported negotiations throughout the process, which got tricky as we moved forward. I learned that it can be common for companies to make a great offer then work to erode that price with their discoveries, but Fred and the GE team kept that from happening.
Caroline Connelly, CEO, OptoTest
The most important contribution I think Ahmad made was with his personality and work ethic. He is sincere, efficient, and very hard working. He was available to me at all times, whether it was for specific detail of the negotiation or just to talk through the bigger picture. He listened, advised, and recommended, but never forced his idea or opinions. In the time we worked together, he became a valued colleague and also a friend.
Salvo Stoch, Founder and CEO of Sleeping Partners
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Ralph Noblin, President of Noblin & Associates
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Jay Dinnison, Owner of Sharpe Mixers
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Robert Evans, President and CEO of Mealtracker Dietary Software
I wanted to write you a quick letter to express our appreciation and our delight on the outcome of helping us through the process of our recent sale. We are very happy with the end result, and are very happy to be able to move forward with all of our future growth plans.
Terry D. Wickman, President, Keytroller